One Shotted

NFL 2010 Fantasy Predictions

January 21, 2010 · Leave a Comment

Drafting for 2010

After a few months off (see: extended holiday boozing), I’m back and ready to own up to my successes and failures as a fantasy prognosticator.  It was a long season for the Chicago Sharts, having placed far too many eggs in the baskets of Jay Cutler, Steve Slaton and Brian Westbrook.

Cutler was a decided risk.  My strategy (in a 10-team league) was to hold off taking a QB until the second half of the draft.  This was based largely on my success a year earlier with Kurt Warner in the late rounds.  Wrong.  Grade:  F

Slaton and Westbrook ran into different but equally debilitating issues.  Slaton fumbled more than a Mariah Carey acceptance speech, and Westbrook joined the Merrill Hoge ranks of disturbing and repeated concussions.  Neither was effective or valuable the entire year, but I had to keep them on the roster in hopes of a recovery.  Thomas Jones was my only bright spot.  Grade:  C-.

Had the league played with only WRs and TEs, I would’ve had the title.  Larry Fitzgerald was dominant (even if not to the level we expected), and Miles Austin had a breakout year.  Add another consistent season from Tony Gonzalez and this became a solid receiving crew.  Grade:  B+.

ESPN Standard Scoring  Analysis

Anyone that drafted 6-10 had a major decision this year.  Every sure-fire RB was off the board and the stable of top-tier receivers was thin (or so we thought).  I picked seventh and the question was clear:  Do I start the WR run or reach into a huge lot of second-tier running backs?  I went Fitzgerald and subsequently endured a 3-10 season.

Some of that can be blamed on my RB challenges, and relying on Cutler/Flacco the entire season (hey, they looked decent at times).  But it cemented a universal truth that, before this year’s draft, was being challenged in some corners.  Regardless of draft position, your team will live and die with two positions:  QB and RB.  The only dynamic that changed is fantasy priority between the two.

The Pitfalls of a WR/WR Strategy

Before I get into that, let’s talk about the WR/WR strategy.  It’s certainly daring, and given the RB depth in 2009 (six scored 200+ pts. on the season; 18 scored 150+), I found quite a few options in the next three rounds.  On the other hand, the WR pool wasn’t nearly as deep (three scored 200+ this year; 13 scored 150+).

The logical fallacy (and the one I believed) was that the overall WR pool was not only much smaller but that the top tier was half the size of their backfield counterparts.  The numbers seemed to favor WR/WR when picking after the top RB tier was gone.  So get while the gettin’s good, right?  Unfortunately, distribution was everything in 2009 (and being too lazy to check, I’d guess every year in the past decade).

Let’s take Fitzy for example.  He finished fifth in ESPN standard scoring (180 pts.) for WRs, yet he had just as many single-digit games (8) as he did double-digit.  Of the latter, only two were above 20 points (24, 20).

Another example is Miles Austin, who finished third in WR scoring (194).  Austin recorded nine games in double digits.  Of those, only three were above 20 points (37, 29, 20).  You could plug Andre Johnson or Randy Moss (#1 and #2, respectively) into Austin’s example.  Both logged nine games in double-digits, with Moss scoring above 20 four times and Johnson three.

Overall, the top five WRs totaled 43 games in double-digits with 16 outings above 20 points.  In comparison, the top five RBs totaled 59 games in double-digits with 22 outings above 20 points.  But that’s not the point — we already knew the top RBs would outscore and be more consistent than the top WRs.

This is a little subjective but let’s compare the top tier WRs with a few second- and third-tier running backs.

  • Joseph Addai (#9 RB):  12 in double-digits, two 20+
  • Jamaal Charles (#12 RB):  Seven in double-digits,  three 20+
  • Jonathon Stewart (#11 RB):  Seven in double-digits, four 20+
  • Ronnie Brown (#32 RB):  Six in double-digits, three 20+

If your league is anything like mine (moderate football IQ, prepared for the draft), all of those RBs could’ve been had after the first four  rounds.  And there’s a host of similar examples that could’ve been had much later:  Cedric Benson, Fred Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, etc.

The real-life reasons for the disparity are fairly obvious.  It’s much easier for a defensive coordinator to take a receiver out of the game than to lock down a back that plays in a balanced offense.  It’s also a volume issue.  A back has 15-25 touches to put up points, where a typical receiver will have 6-10 a game.

The takeaway, at least for an owner considering a WR/WR strategy, is don’t do it.  If you pick in the latter half of the first round, go RB/RB or QB/RB.  Outside of Andre Johnson, who was as consistent as a top-tier RB this year, the upside is extremely limited.  Best case scenario, they keep pace with the second-tier backs you could’ve taken.  Worst case scenario, they cripple your team with feast or famine games.

Making A Case for QB/RB in 2010

No single player is more important to your success next year than quarterback (unless you have the opportunity to take Chris Johnson).  Consistent QB play, week-to-week, is more critical to long-term success than two stud backs.

In contrast to a top-flight RB that has trouble putting up 20+ each week, your QB should average that amount.  A quick look at QB point-per-game averages in 2009 (admittedly using my league’s scoring system which varies a bit from ESPN standard):

  • Aaron Rodgers (#1):  24
  • Drew Brees (#2):  21
  • Brett Favre (#3):  21
  • Peyton Manning (#4): 21
  • Matt Schaub (#5):  20
  • Tony Romo (#6):  20
  • Tom Brady (#7):  20
  • Philip Rivers (#8):  19
  • Big Ben (#9):  19
  • Donovan McNabb (#10):  16

The difference doesn’t seem like much initially, but over the course of a full NFL season, it’s a delta of nearly a hundred points between Rodgers (#1) and McNabb (#10).  This isn’t reason enough to take a QB over a RB with the first three or four picks but it makes a very strong case to use a 5-10 pick on a QB rather than a top flight WR or second tier RB.

Another subjective point to consider.  It took an historic year from Chris Johnson to narrowly edge Aaron Rodgers in total points (329-327).  Rodgers was good but not NFL record books good.

Let’s set up a reasonable scenario in next year’s draft.  Chris Johnson, AP, MJD and Ray Rice are taken with the first four picks.  You’re on the clock at five.

Option #1:  You can take Deangelo Williams, Michael Turner, Stephen Jackson, Mendenhall, Frank Gore and Addai among others (with only 20-30 total points separating the lot).

Option #2:  You can take the #1 WR Andre Johnson (only 25 total points above the #5 WR)

Option #3:  You can take the #1 QB Aaron Rodgers (47 total points above the #2 QB, and 58 above the #5 QB)

Those figures quickly elevate Rodgers into a Top 5 candidate, and validate a QB/RB approach.  The drop-off was a little greater this year after Rodgers, but I’d still put Manning and Brees in QB/RB or RB/QB territory (who knows with Favre, you definitely don’t burn a Top 20 pick on him).

The obvious risk with QB/RB or RB/QB is rolling without a top-five WR.  But the numbers back the return.  You don’t need to spend on a game-breaker, you need to find value with SERVICEABLE go-to-guys.  Remember, the big names face double- and triple-teams, and guys like Miles Austin and Sidney Rice will keep emerging each year (Early Doucet and Jeremy Maclin in 2010 . . . depending on whether or not Warner comes back).

Of course, you probably assumed as much.  But I wanted to throw some bad math at you anyway.

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NFL 2009 Midseason Awards

November 10, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Norm

Norm Approves of The These Awards.

A few years ago, my friends and I held an annual sojourn to Vegas.  It was a magical time before the soul-crushing rigors of life, a five-year stretch in our mid-20’s, somewhere between college graduation and the first wedding engagements (and/or children for those early starters).  We all had a little money, a little success, and a robust penchant for debauchery.

Our first trip was an epic 72-hour affair that started shortly after our departing flight.  Anyone that’s gone to Vegas on such a venture knows the cheers that erupt just before landing on the strip.  There’s a certain energy to cracking your first drink at 8am, knowing your colleagues are still slaving away at the office.

Those first few trips included at least a few of the following moments: one member always AWOL, incredible up-then-down blackjack moments, realizing that craps is the best game ever invented, almost closing the deal with a complete skank, paying $50 to get into a club and leaving 30 minutes later (after not closing on said skank), someone pissing the bed and another missing their flight home.  There’s a reason Simmons talks about Vegas at least 4-5 times a year in his columns.  Ahh Vegas.

Inevitably, that excitement wanes through the years.

Vegas becomes less about life-long friends cutting loose and more about couples enjoying a few days off.  Late nights getting housed at the Golden Nugget tables (after we lose our ass on the main strip) are replaced by ‘we’re going to see a show, we’ll meet you guys later.’  After doing Vegas balls-to-the-wall for five years, it’s akin to the Rock Biter in The Neverending Story clinging to life as the world around him disintegrates.

Peyton Manning was on that last flight to Vegas this year, on the heals of Tony Dungie’s departure and facing the least experienced receiving corps of his career.   When the flight landed, not even Manning had the energy to raise a toast to the upcoming season.  Instead of racing to the closest blackjack table, he slowly eyeballed the Keno board in the hopes of riding out the weekend.

And then a funny thing happened on the way to oblivion.  Nine weeks and 9 wins later, Manning is proving that not all things change.

Most Valuable Player:  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts. Although impressive (221-2545-16), the stats aren’t enough.  Manning runs this franchise.  The closest thing is Mike Brown coaching the Cavaliers, and that’s not even in the same realm.  Tom Moore is a great offensive mind but let’s be clear — Manning calls the plays.  He’s the closest thing to a player-coach the NFL has ever seen, and he’s doing it with [insert name] running routes.  What starts with Reggie Wayne, an all-pro receiver, ends with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon.

Runner Up:  Drew Brees, QB, Saints.

Comeback Player of the Year:  Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals.  I’ve already touted Benson’s ability to stay healthy and productive with 25+ carries a game this year.  The biggest surprise is his attitude and the way the offense rallied around him.  Any Bears fan can tell you what I saw in two years in Chicago — a selfish player that complained about carries, couldn’t run through arm tackles or keep himself out of trouble.  He’s a throwback to the days of a workhorse back and his team found balance in his rejuvenation.

Runner Up:  Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos.

Offensive Player of the Year:  Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  It’s always a little weird when the MVP and best offensive player are different.  The difference here is that New Orleans brings a lot more to the table offensively, but Brees (181-2336-17) remains the heart of the unit.  It’s a tough case to make, but Brees doesn’t unload every time he can, just when he needs to.  With a strong stable of backs and receivers, even Manning and the Colts don’t want to push Brees into shoot-out mode.

Runner Up:  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts.

Defensive Player of the Year:  Troy Polamalu, DB, Steelers.  There’s no bigger game-changer in the league, especially for a 3-4 defense built on risk-taking and recovery.  Not Ed Reed.  Not Darren Sharper.  Not Jared Allen.  Not even the resurgent James Harrison.  When Polamalu is in the lineup, the Steelers defense is a different animal.  And that beast generally dismembers opposing offenses.  He plays the run, covers like a shut-down corner and — like an 8 facing the dealers 10 — sticks it out to the bitter end.

Runner Up:  Darren Sharper, DB, Saints.

Offensive Rookie of the Year:  Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings. At some point during training camp, Brad Childress woke up screaming in the middle of the night.  His wife, terrified that this may be the one, calls the paramedics.  Staring blankly at his cell phone, which reads ‘One Message Waiting’, Childress ejaculates at the mere thought of having Brett Favre build chemistry with versatile and speedy first-round pick.  Paramedics arrive to Childress mumbling, As long as we win, this beard shall grow . . .

Runner Up:  Michael Oher, OL, Ravens. (And not just because of the book.  Yes, it was a book first.)

Defensive Rookie of the Year:  Brian Cushing, LB, Texans. I hate USC linebackers.  I think they’re over-rated, under-sized and generally fit into schemes rather than stewarding defenses.  But Cushing is second in the league in tackles (78)  with two picks for a maturing Texans defense.

Runner Up:  Brian Orakpo, DE, Redskins.

Coach of the Year:  Sean Payton, Saints. After establishing offensive domain over the league last year, Payton re-tooled his defense into an opportunistic, and if need be, resilient unit.  More so, he has the humility to hand the reigns over to Brees, helping mold the Saints into one of the league’s two unbeaten teams at the halfway point.

Runner Up:  Mike Tomlin, Steelers.

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Fantasy Rewind: NFL Week 9 Winners and Losers

November 10, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Turner

This Man Will Give You 15 Each Week.

A huge grab bag of NFL Week 9 Winners and Losers this week.

Let’s just get down to business.

The Winners

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons:  A few low-yardage outings aside, The Burner has scored eight touchdowns in his last five games, punctuated by this week’s 18-166-2 performance.  Turner is one of the few backs that does exactly what you’d expect in a given outing.  His yardage may ebb once in a while, but there’s no question who’s getting the ball on the goal line.

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals:  I never thought Warner’s wife was attractive, although she’s doing much better with the longer hair.  There’s something about a female Marine Corps vet that scares my babymaker.  I was sort of into Demi Moore in G.I. Jane.  Anyway, Warner decimated the Bears for 265 and 5.  Bet your fantasy team on him, just not your money.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals:  Even as I lamented another Bears loss, I quietly rejoiced over Fitzgerald’s fantasy stats (9-123-2).  He’s one of the few receivers you see in person (Calvin Johnson being another) and realize he’s on another level than everyone else on the field.  With the Seahawks, Rams (twice), Titans and Lions still on the schedule, 1,400 yards and  15 scores isn’t out of the question.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers:  Williams put up 21-149-2 against a competent Saints defense on Sunday.  Things get a little tougher for him in the second half but he remains a must-start in all formats.  By the way, have you ever seen a team more star-crossed team than the Panthers (okay, maybe the Titans)?  Every time they start to pull things together, they come up a little short.

Greg Olsen, TE, Bears:  Just what we all need, another feast or famine tight end.  If I had my druthers, all fantasy football leagues would start two WRs and a single flex (WR/TE/RB).  Starting a tight end is like going to a wedding where you only know your date.  You’re either going to get shit-housed or sit quietly in the corner.  There’s no in between.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens:  Rice gets the nod this week not because he blew you away (12-48-1) but because the guy’s lowest scoring outing this year is still close to double-digits.  It’s like the academy giving Lord of the Rings:  Return of the King best picture based on all three films.  Sometimes, consistency counts.  (Along those lines, I’ve watched various installments of The Matrix during my recent ‘time off.’  I think the second film gets a bad wrap.  Like LotR:  The Two Towers, it was basically stitching together the story.  Had they only made two films, the first, and then a longer compilation of the second two — removing almost all of the Zion scenes — the series would be seen in a different light.).

Steelers DST:  Anyone in an ESPN fantasy league knows two things.  One, the site is unusually hard to navigate.  Two, their ‘expert’ projections are either absurdly low or high.  Anyone that didn’t think the Steelers defense would have a field day against Denver doesn’t watch the games.  The ESPN experts projected 4, the defense delivered 17.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears:  In the long lineage of QB’s carrying bad teams, the comparison was made this week between Cutler and Archie Manning of the Saints.  Reaching perhaps, but Cutler is putting up huge numbers (369-3-1 this week) for a Bears offense that really doesn’t have anything.  His best receiver is a converted return guy still learning the position (although Devin Hester has shown great improvement this year).

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals:  No other back in the league is approaching 25 carries per game.  There’s little doubt he’s going to break down before he turns 28 but as long as he continues to put up numbers like Sunday (34-117-1), Benson is a must-start in any format or matchup.

The Losers

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles:   I don’t know what to say about Westbrook.  Obviously, this year’s performance isn’t his fault.  Limited carries and a nasty concussion have limited the diminutive dynamo (47-197-1).  But anyone that drafted him (myself included) has waited patiently for a triumphant return that may not come.  Even if you handcuffed LeSean McCoy, this isn’t the situation you envisioned at the start of the season.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers:  Another victim of the changing guard in NFL backfields, Parker didn’t register a single carry in Pittsburgh’s win over Denver.  Although healthy, FWP is now an afterthought in the Steelers offense, and only viable if second-year back Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt.

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens:  If you’ve watched a few Ravens games this year, you know the score on Flacco.  Every thing he does is predicated on Ray Rice and his ability to turn screen passes into long gains.  Sure, Flacco can throw the ball down field, and Derrick Mason is still a deep threat, but the Flacco owners will live and die on the short pass.  This week, we died.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins:  Another major concussion in the NFL this week.  Against the backdrop of the congressional hearings, Westbrook’s injury and the Redskins being a playoff afterthought, don’t expect the team to rush Portis back on the field.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers:  After a few upticks (against the Raiders and Denver), L.T. is following FWP into fantasy irrelevance.  It’s unfortunate to see such a talent fade so quickly.  It wasn’t long ago that L.T. was the class of the league.  How quickly that’s forgotten in the face of 12-22-0 performances.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons:  The honeymoon is over for Ryan, who has seen his fantasy totals drop for five consecutive weeks (including 135-1 last week).

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions:  It sucks to be a Johnson owner.  The guy is so talented that he’s a threat to score even on this Lions squad.  Unfortunately, Matt Stafford is more akin to throwing to the other team (5 Ints) than Johnson (2-27-0).

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals.  I feel bad for Boldin.  After a lot of lip-service by the team in the off-season, Boldin suited up again this year.  Yet, the team continues to devalue his contribution to the offense, whether he’s on the field or not.  A once a nasty YAC guy is now just hoping for 2-3 catches a game.  Why Ken Wisenhut didn’t trade him in a rich off-season market for receivers is beyond me.  Could you imagine Boldin and Cutler together in Chicago?  /Drool.

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The Chicago Bears Will Rise Again (Just Not Anytime Soon)

November 10, 2009 · Leave a Comment

salaam

Kordell Stewart Approves This Message.

It was not a good weekend for your football team if I happened to be in attendance.

I traveled to my old stomping grounds on Saturday to watch my high school football team lose a second-round playoff game (to a team they beat during the regular season).  The following day, I witnessed Kurt Warner’s dissection of the Bears secondary at Soldiers Field.

Beer eases the pain.

If there was one thing I noticed about watching high school football its that it seems about 100x faster when you’re actually playing it.  Although there were some talented athletes on the field, I couldn’t help but think, This all just looks a lot slower than I remember.  Of course in my current shape, I probably couldn’t run down a single player on either team.

Speed wasn’t the most glaring issue on Sunday as I watched Kurt Warner dissect the Bears defense, although Larry Fitzgerald routinely made their DBs look like they were carrying a plow behind them.  Watching from the north end zone, we get a pretty clear view of coverage schemes that you don’t see on a TV broadcast.

Put simply, the Bears defense looked lost.  It was the second time this year that a top-tier QB methodically picked them apart with screens, short routes, crossing routes and deep patterns.  The more pressure the Bears brought (which wasn’t nearly enough), the easier it was for Warner and co. to adjust to find the open receiver.  Carson Palmer did the same thing a few weeks ago.  Heck, Matt Stafford and Seneca Wallace both put up 250+ yards against this unit.

I was emailing with my friend BK about the state of affairs in Chicago.  There’s really no short-term answer for this team.  Lovie Smith will not be fired or bought out of his current contract, which extends through 2011.  First, Smith took them to the Super Bowl three years ago.  Second, the McCaskey’s just don’t do that, not even with absolute disasters (see:  Dave Wannstedt and Dick Jauron).  Not to mention the $11M they’d eat.

So where do you start rebuilding?  The offensive line is a mess.  The defensive line is aging and inconsistent.  Even with Urlacher healthy, the linebackers don’t have much tread left (Briggs can’t do it alone).  And what about the secondary?  Outside of Peanut Tillman, who’s a shade slow these days and needs others to make up for his gambles, there’s not a legit performer in the back-end (they gave up their last game-changing DB, Mike Brown, after years of injuries).  Lest we forget the scheme itself — it’s painfully apparent to everyone but Lovie that the Bears don’t have the talent to support the Tampa-2.

Sure, the Bears locked up one of the league’s best young quarterbacks in Jay Cutler, who more than any other season is carrying an abysmal offense on his back.  And they found a diamond in the rough with Matt Forte last year, who has looked more like Curtis Enis than Walter Payton after a break-out rookie season.

But for both to succeed in the long-term, they need a supporting cast that’s just not there.  Speaking of which, Orlando Pace was arguably the worst free-agent signing of the year.  Unless they meant to sign the Zombie Pace, in which case he’s showing remarkably quick feet for a corpse.

It’s going to be a long second-half for the Bears:  Vikings twice, Eagles, Packers and Ravens.  That’s a tough nut to crack for a team still in contention for a wild card spot.  But it’s going to be an even longer few years for Bears fans that only weeks ago saw 2009 as a turning point for the franchise.

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Lost Movie Vault: The Thing

November 2, 2009 · Leave a Comment

TheThing

This is not Bruce Jenner during his face lift.

For those of you born before this date in 1980, you may not know Kurt Russell.  Maybe you’ve seen him in shitty re-runs of Executive Decision, 3,000 Miles to Graceland or Death Proof.  Or caught Escape from L.A. on Showtime and thought, well, that’s an interesting concept.

If you don’t know, allow me to educate:  Kurt Russell was the FUCKING MAN for a decade.  Escape from New York.  Big Trouble in Little China.  Tango & Cash.  Backdraft.  Tombstone (You tell ‘em I’M coming… and hell’s coming with me). In the diluted and highly over-rated Arnold and Sly action era, Russell offered a tongue-in-cheek alternative in the on-screen ass-kicking business.  His work, particularly in Little China, paved the way for the Bruce Campbell horror-comedy genre.  If you don’t know Bruce Campbell, just leave now.

I left out one important contribution.  Arguably Russell’s best work, as well as that of his director, John Carpenter.  The single-most terrifying movie of its time, and a film that’s aged far better than anything produced before the turn of the century:  The Thing.

If you’re 30, chances are you’ve seen The Thing.  And you probably remember almost pissing your pants the first time you saw it.  The Thing is a masterpiece of story-telling, set design, special effects, pacing and character acting, not only by Russell, but his counterparts who played the last survivors of a doomed scientific and military outpost in the Antarctic.

As I lay dying of H1N1 this weekend (and missing one of my favorite holidays of the year), most of the broadcast, cable and movie channels were running horror movie marathons.  Some great DVR material was on repeat for 24 hours:  Halloween (another Carpenter masterpiece), Friday the 13th, Hellraiser, Evil Dead, Army of Darkness, The Omen, The Exorcist, A Nightmare on Elm Street and a plethora of Romero’s cult classics.

But amidst these epic contributions, I was forced to rent The Thing over iTunes.  For shame, network television, for shame.

If you’re burnt on the over-produced, over-hyped, gore-drenched remakes being pumped out by the Rob Zombies of the world, treat yourself to a night with The Thing.  And when you realize you’re a Russell or Carpenter fan, check out Little China, The Fog or Christine.

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Why Fantasy Football Should Draft Teams, Not Players

November 2, 2009 · Leave a Comment

JamesVB

It's not just the hair, JVB.

My friend Robert (hereto known as Ert) holds the distinction of being our league’s worst owner.  Over the past eight years, Ert routinely ranks in the bottom third of all teams, has never won a league championship and is a prime target for relentless Tuesday morning mockery.

His worst moments usually happen during those critical four or five hours during the draft.  Robert is a very smart guy, and a great family man, but when it comes to game-time decisions, he falls apart like Tom Cable during a coaches meeting.  Unfortunately, we migrated the league from CBS Sportsline to ESPN this year, so I can’t go back and pull some of his bigger blunders over the last eight years.  But we do have a little recent history (starting Jamal Lewis, Derrick Ward and Sammy Morris on a consistent basis this year).

In any event, Ert pulled down Brees, Moss, T.O. and a number of ‘breakout’ players during this year’s draft, astonishing most of us while crowning him the regular season favorite.  Things looked good in Week 1:  117 points and weekly honors for high score (and a $10 payout).  Since then, Ert has gone 1-6, his only other win coming against your’s truly in Week 3 (a pathetic 62-51 affair).  He has, by a good margin, the lowest scoring team in the league, and relies on Brees’ herculean performances to stay competitive week-to-week.

But I can’t pin his performance solely on draft decisions and weekly starts.

No, there’s an uglier issue lording over the whole of fantasy football.  Unabashed luck.  Pure and simple.  Before the season, would anyone bet $50 or even $10 that T.O. would have only one receiving touchdown through eight weeks?  Or that Greg Olsen would be the 17th best TE in football (keep in mind we both live near Chicago, where everyone and their brother was touting Olsen’s chemistry with Cutler)?  Or that Ryan Grant would become an afterthought in Green Bay’s offense?  As an aside, Ert’s other fantasy team, which he allowed to be auto-drafted in his Yahoo league, is currently in contention.

Anyone remember the days when a dominant back, one good receiver and a consistent quarterback could carry a team to the championship?  Putting together that holy trinity took some planning, and usually paid out in spades if you could get it right.  Those days are gone.  Instead, we have a fantasy atmosphere that is three parts luck, one part waiver wire proficiency.  Although Ert drafted a team that should do better, there are many more examples of weaker drafts now dominating leagues.

Luck has always played a role but never so much as this season.  Even owners that took All Day with the first pick are struggling, as evidenced by our A.P. owner sitting in the basement (a team that includes Kurt Warner and Carolina’s Steve Smith).  Forte owners only recently stepped back from the ledge.  Andre Johnson is not living up to his billing.  Nor is Larry Fitzgerald.  Never mind increasingly hit-or-miss plays with Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook and Tony Gonzalez.

As someone that’s lived the dream . . . having your fantasy team go to the league championship the same year your team (Steelers) wins the Super Bowl . . . its equally ruinous when your fantasy team sucks and you can’t enjoy an NFL game, even when your real life team is winning.

After spending dozens of hours preparing for this year’s fantasy draft, and reaping very few benefits on Sundays, there’s only two choices.  Give up on your fantasy team altogether, checking in solely to avoid starting players on bye week.  Or build a super team on the sly with other down-on-their-luck owners, trading key players to a single owner and splitting the bounty if that team wins out (a tough balancing act to avoid a veto from the league commish . . . something Ert and I have pulled off in the past).

The answer?  Stop drafting players and start drafting teams by position.

You like the Giants running game?  Draft them at RB1.  You like the Cardinal’s receivers?  Draft them at WR1.  The Colts passing game?  QB1.  The rules would be pretty simple.  Instead of rounds, the draft would go by position.  A team could be drafted only once by position, but would become available again once the next position was up.  The waiver would work the same — you could add/drop teams by position to the waiver.  This would fit PERFECTLY into an auction system.

A team-by-position league would not only mitigate luck, but would allow homers to draft their favorite teams and not be immediately lambasted, helping reverse the Sunday curse of rooting for players playing against your team.

A few thoughts as my 2-5 Chicago Sharts struggle for their third victory tonight (go go Tony Gonzalez).

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Steve Slaton: A Graphic Analysis

November 2, 2009 · Leave a Comment

FumblesTDs2

Tiki Barber approves this message.

FumblesTDsFantasy owners do not approve of this message.

 

SlatonMoats

You are NOT my boy, Blue.

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Link Dump (or What I Did Last Week With H1N1)

November 2, 2009 · Leave a Comment

TamifluI spent most of last week on the couch, allowing my body to purge whatever bug I caught flying back and forth from New York.

Although he didn’t do any blood testing for H1N1, my doc prescribed Tamiflu, which only served to lighten my wallet and make me feel worse instead of better.  There’s a lot of talk about Tamiflu these days, particularly the shortage of this incredibly pricey drug that may or may not actually reduce the length of the flu.

I understand the importance of controlling flu outbreaks (read:  Flu, The Spanish), but it seems every time a new mutation is found, the country (world) goes absolutely insane (read:  Flu, Avian).  More specifically, drug companies go into capitalistic over-drive, rushing to market new drugs with very limited track records and vague benefits.

And the kicker, of course, is the lack of generic alternatives in such occassions, meaning zero low-cost choices for suckers like me that pony up $88 for 10 . . . that’s right . . . 10 pills.  As a side note, I only took two, and immediately regretted taking the second one, which put me on the verge of puking for four hours.

But I digress.  Outside of sweating through 2-3 pairs of drawers each day, it wasn’t a very productive week.  However, I did re-acclimate myself with all the LULZ, GTFO’s and NSFW’s the Internet has to offer.  As my temperature rose, my IQ continued to drop sharply.

PopThatZit.com:  Self-explanatory, and disgusting.  Check it out if you’re the type that enjoys images and stories about near-bursting whiteheads and infected boils.

The Ten Biggest Candy Fails Each Halloween:  I doubt you see a lot of this today, but back in the late 80’s and early 90’s there was a good chance you’d end the night with a dozen pennies, two unwrapped popcorn balls and free range candy corn in your sack.

Your ISP, if Net Neutrality Disappears:  I currently pay about $150 a month for Comcast cable and Internet, which is a ridiculous amount for the services I receive (HD channels, a few low-end movie channels, high-speed Internet and the two boxes they FORCE me to rent).  If my Internet package was ever sold a la carte, that figure could easily double.  If you don’t know anything about Net Neutrality, it’s basically the Comcasts of the world attempting to charge you for different tiers of access, whether it be particular sites or overall bandwidth allowances.  It’s an important issue, and one that is right now working its way through Congress.

15 Free Guides That Teach You Useful Stuff:  A collection of easy-to-follow guides for things like home networking, getting started with Linux, using Photoshop effectively and buying a laptop.  Good for beginners, and still has a few good tips for the more advanced nerds.

If Cats Could Talk:  I don’t like cats, I don’t like lolcats.  In fact, I believe cats hate human beings.  And this graph proves it.

Angelina Jolie’s Early Modeling Photos:  Very SFW.  But I can’t get past my long-held notion that Angelina is not an attractive woman.  Most guys would give up their best friends for one night with Tyler Durden’s better half.  Not I.  I’d be too afraid of her elbows or knee caps cutting me in half.

Fancast.com:  As a long-time fan of Hulu.com, this site confused me.  I think it’s an aggregator of all free TV shows and movies available online, pulling in content from Hulu and it’s backers, as well as content from competing broadcast networks.  It’s definitely worth a look.

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Fantasy Rewind: NFL Week 7 Winners and Losers

October 26, 2009 · Leave a Comment

CedBen

Longhorn Running Backs Dominated the Weekend

After dropping five straight, my fantasy team rebounded this week with standout performances by Thomas Jones, Miles Austin and the Steelers DST.  Thankfully, the Chicago Sharts still have an outside chance to make the league playoffs.

It was a good weekend across the board for most established performers, and I imagine most of your league’s scores are hovering around the century mark (especially in PPR leagues).  In this week’s rewind, I eat a little crow on two players (Cedric Benson and Carson Palmer) that I doubted earlier this year.

The Winners

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets:  The Rodney Dangerfield of football (both on the field and in fantasy) just keeps on chugging.  With 26 carries for 121 yards and score on Sunday, Jones has totaled 331  yards and two scores in his last two outings.  This was his fourth dominant fantasy performance of the year (19, 30, 16, 23).  Although he’s faced weak running defenses, Jones is in must-start territory from week to week.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals:  Benson is quickly becoming a throwback to the days of a single lead back.  Ced’s 37 carries against Chicago is the league’s highest single-game total this year, and he’s leading the league in both total rushing yards (720) and attempts per game (23).  His lowest fantasy output this year is 8 pts. (ESPN standard scoring), making the Orange Jesus only slightly less consistent than his Purple counterpart.

Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys:  Check out Austin’s two-game totals — 421 yards and 4 TDs.  He hasn’t cracked the top 10 in total fantasy points for a wideout, but little doubt remains about his ability or chemistry with Tony Romo.

Ricky Williams, RB, Miami:  Is there a better compliment to Ronnie Brown, or any starting back for that matter?  Williams averages only 12-13 touches per game but has accounted for nearly 540 yards and 6 scores.  This is Williams’ ninth year in the league, and the guy is well beyond the age when most running backs deteriorate (32).  But the former Heisman winner shows incredible burst through the hole and still has elite speed for a power back.

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans:  I think fantasy owners are finally past any hesitation starting Schaub week-to-week.  Although he didn’t put up staggering numbers on Sunday (264 yards, 2 TDs), he’s more consistent and has the tools and team to hang with Brady and Brees on occasion.  If Steve Slaton can continue to improve on the ground (he’s been terrific as a pass-catcher this year), expect big things from Schaub.

Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals:  The rumors of Palmer’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.  The second Bengal on this list put up Brady-like numbers on Sunday (233 yards, 5 TDs), albeit against a pitiful Chicago secondary.  You’re not going to see this on a weekly basis but with Benson keeping 7-8 defenders in the box, Palmer is more than capable of making good secondaries pay.

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers:  Move over Antonio Gates, Davis is now the best red-zone TE in the league.  And with the return of Alex Smith, you can only expect more of the same (this duo has demonstrated good chemistry in the past).  He’s not going to net huge yardage or reception totals, but almost 1-in-4 of his receptions goes for a TD.

Honorable Mention:  Green Bay offense; Steelers DST; Chad Ochocinco, Bengals

The Losers

Hines Ward, WR, Steelers:  The top-five fantasy receiver had a slow day on Sunday, netting one reception for three yards against a stout Minnesota defense (even without Antoine Winfield).  It was a quirky offensive day for both squads, with much of the scoring coming from special teams and turnovers.  Although Ward is losing some possession targets to Heath Miller, these games are going to happen now and again.  He faces a tough secondary in Denver after next week’s bye.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers:  It pains me to put Ward and Holmes on this list but at least the Steelers defense showed up this week.  Holmes is a matchup performer (think Lee Evans) and a deep threat but he hasn’t overtaken Ward as the team’s go-to guy, even when the Steelers are putting up good yardage numbers.  You’ll get a few gems but don’t expect any sort of consistency week-to-week.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears:  You can’t blame Forte for this week’s totals (49 total yards, 0 TDs).  The game was over before the end of the first quarter, and he quickly became a non-factor.  But the writing is on the wall — the Bears line can’t run block, and Forte isn’t showing the same burst or decisive cutback runs that made  him so effective last year.  Without the Detroit game, Forte has carried 80 times for 197 yards and zero scores this year.  And the rest of the schedule (Philadelphia, Baltimore and Minnesota twice) doesn’t bode well for a second-half recovery.

Terrell Owens, WR, Bills:  Like Forte, it’s time to stop banging your head against the keyboard and sit (or drop) T.O.  He is quite simply the worst starting #1 receiver in the league right now (well, outside of Roy Williams, who just lost his #1 status to Miles Austin).  If you stripped away the name, would you even consider starting a WR that has 18 catches for 242 yards and score?

Greg Olson, TE, Bears:  Our second Bear on the list was considered a breakout performer by many (including me) with the addition of Cutler.  Olson totaled four catches for 24 yards against the Bengals in a game that saw the Bears throwing on three and four downs.  Not a good sign.  In an offense that can’t run and a hit-or-miss quarterback, Olson’s value has dropped to bye week replacement status.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions:  If you’ve ever seen Johnson play in person, he’s truly a man among boys on the field.  He may be the most complete and physically dominant receiver in the league.  However, in addition to playing in the Lions offense, he’s dealing with a nagging injury that kept him off the field on Sunday.  Although he had a great performance against in Week 4, you can probably attribute that to the Bears secondary.  With Daunte Culpepper and Matthew Stafford rotating at quarterback (due to injuries), Megatron’s talents will continue to be wasted.

Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys:  Ironically, the departure of Julius Jones may have been the worst thing to happen to Barber.  Instead of an adequate but error-prone back-up, Barber is splitting carries with a true game breaker (Felix Jones) and a proven backup (Tashard Choice).  Never mind that the Barbarian is running for a career-best 4.8 yards per carry — Jones is averaging almost 9 yards per, and the Cowboys defense isn’t allowing them to close out games on the ground.

Honorable Mention:  Jay Cutler, Bears; Frank Gore, 49ers; Tony Gonzalez, Falcons; Antonio Gates, Chargers

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NFL Week 5: Building a Full Waiver Wire Team From Scratch

October 9, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Building on our Booms & Busts update for Week 5, we’re taking things a step further — creating a full team from scratch using only players currently available on waivers.  To qualify, a player has to be available in more than half of all ESPN leagues.

The Waiver Wire Wonders – Week 5 (% owned)

  • QB:  Jason Campbell (40%)
  • RB1:  Mewelde Moore (6%)
  • RB2:  Laurence Maroney (16%)
  • Flex:  Michael Bush (30%)
  • WR1:  Nate Washington (20%)
  • WR2:  Michael Jenkins (8%)
  • TE:  Todd Heap (40%)
  • DST:  Patriots(43%)

Is this helpful to anyone?  Probably not.  But it’s been raining for the last 48 hours here in Chicago, and I’m about to lose my mind.  We’ll check back next week and see how this team faired against my current team (which has undergone a few face lifts since).

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