Drafting for 2010
After a few months off (see: extended holiday boozing), I’m back and ready to own up to my successes and failures as a fantasy prognosticator. It was a long season for the Chicago Sharts, having placed far too many eggs in the baskets of Jay Cutler, Steve Slaton and Brian Westbrook.
Cutler was a decided risk. My strategy (in a 10-team league) was to hold off taking a QB until the second half of the draft. This was based largely on my success a year earlier with Kurt Warner in the late rounds. Wrong. Grade: F
Slaton and Westbrook ran into different but equally debilitating issues. Slaton fumbled more than a Mariah Carey acceptance speech, and Westbrook joined the Merrill Hoge ranks of disturbing and repeated concussions. Neither was effective or valuable the entire year, but I had to keep them on the roster in hopes of a recovery. Thomas Jones was my only bright spot. Grade: C-.
Had the league played with only WRs and TEs, I would’ve had the title. Larry Fitzgerald was dominant (even if not to the level we expected), and Miles Austin had a breakout year. Add another consistent season from Tony Gonzalez and this became a solid receiving crew. Grade: B+.
ESPN Standard Scoring Analysis
Anyone that drafted 6-10 had a major decision this year. Every sure-fire RB was off the board and the stable of top-tier receivers was thin (or so we thought). I picked seventh and the question was clear: Do I start the WR run or reach into a huge lot of second-tier running backs? I went Fitzgerald and subsequently endured a 3-10 season.
Some of that can be blamed on my RB challenges, and relying on Cutler/Flacco the entire season (hey, they looked decent at times). But it cemented a universal truth that, before this year’s draft, was being challenged in some corners. Regardless of draft position, your team will live and die with two positions: QB and RB. The only dynamic that changed is fantasy priority between the two.
The Pitfalls of a WR/WR Strategy
Before I get into that, let’s talk about the WR/WR strategy. It’s certainly daring, and given the RB depth in 2009 (six scored 200+ pts. on the season; 18 scored 150+), I found quite a few options in the next three rounds. On the other hand, the WR pool wasn’t nearly as deep (three scored 200+ this year; 13 scored 150+).
The logical fallacy (and the one I believed) was that the overall WR pool was not only much smaller but that the top tier was half the size of their backfield counterparts. The numbers seemed to favor WR/WR when picking after the top RB tier was gone. So get while the gettin’s good, right? Unfortunately, distribution was everything in 2009 (and being too lazy to check, I’d guess every year in the past decade).
Let’s take Fitzy for example. He finished fifth in ESPN standard scoring (180 pts.) for WRs, yet he had just as many single-digit games (8) as he did double-digit. Of the latter, only two were above 20 points (24, 20).
Another example is Miles Austin, who finished third in WR scoring (194). Austin recorded nine games in double digits. Of those, only three were above 20 points (37, 29, 20). You could plug Andre Johnson or Randy Moss (#1 and #2, respectively) into Austin’s example. Both logged nine games in double-digits, with Moss scoring above 20 four times and Johnson three.
Overall, the top five WRs totaled 43 games in double-digits with 16 outings above 20 points. In comparison, the top five RBs totaled 59 games in double-digits with 22 outings above 20 points. But that’s not the point — we already knew the top RBs would outscore and be more consistent than the top WRs.
This is a little subjective but let’s compare the top tier WRs with a few second- and third-tier running backs.
- Joseph Addai (#9 RB): 12 in double-digits, two 20+
- Jamaal Charles (#12 RB): Seven in double-digits, three 20+
- Jonathon Stewart (#11 RB): Seven in double-digits, four 20+
- Ronnie Brown (#32 RB): Six in double-digits, three 20+
If your league is anything like mine (moderate football IQ, prepared for the draft), all of those RBs could’ve been had after the first four rounds. And there’s a host of similar examples that could’ve been had much later: Cedric Benson, Fred Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, etc.
The real-life reasons for the disparity are fairly obvious. It’s much easier for a defensive coordinator to take a receiver out of the game than to lock down a back that plays in a balanced offense. It’s also a volume issue. A back has 15-25 touches to put up points, where a typical receiver will have 6-10 a game.
The takeaway, at least for an owner considering a WR/WR strategy, is don’t do it. If you pick in the latter half of the first round, go RB/RB or QB/RB. Outside of Andre Johnson, who was as consistent as a top-tier RB this year, the upside is extremely limited. Best case scenario, they keep pace with the second-tier backs you could’ve taken. Worst case scenario, they cripple your team with feast or famine games.
Making A Case for QB/RB in 2010
No single player is more important to your success next year than quarterback (unless you have the opportunity to take Chris Johnson). Consistent QB play, week-to-week, is more critical to long-term success than two stud backs.
In contrast to a top-flight RB that has trouble putting up 20+ each week, your QB should average that amount. A quick look at QB point-per-game averages in 2009 (admittedly using my league’s scoring system which varies a bit from ESPN standard):
- Aaron Rodgers (#1): 24
- Drew Brees (#2): 21
- Brett Favre (#3): 21
- Peyton Manning (#4): 21
- Matt Schaub (#5): 20
- Tony Romo (#6): 20
- Tom Brady (#7): 20
- Philip Rivers (#8): 19
- Big Ben (#9): 19
- Donovan McNabb (#10): 16
The difference doesn’t seem like much initially, but over the course of a full NFL season, it’s a delta of nearly a hundred points between Rodgers (#1) and McNabb (#10). This isn’t reason enough to take a QB over a RB with the first three or four picks but it makes a very strong case to use a 5-10 pick on a QB rather than a top flight WR or second tier RB.
Another subjective point to consider. It took an historic year from Chris Johnson to narrowly edge Aaron Rodgers in total points (329-327). Rodgers was good but not NFL record books good.
Let’s set up a reasonable scenario in next year’s draft. Chris Johnson, AP, MJD and Ray Rice are taken with the first four picks. You’re on the clock at five.
Option #1: You can take Deangelo Williams, Michael Turner, Stephen Jackson, Mendenhall, Frank Gore and Addai among others (with only 20-30 total points separating the lot).
Option #2: You can take the #1 WR Andre Johnson (only 25 total points above the #5 WR)
Option #3: You can take the #1 QB Aaron Rodgers (47 total points above the #2 QB, and 58 above the #5 QB)
Those figures quickly elevate Rodgers into a Top 5 candidate, and validate a QB/RB approach. The drop-off was a little greater this year after Rodgers, but I’d still put Manning and Brees in QB/RB or RB/QB territory (who knows with Favre, you definitely don’t burn a Top 20 pick on him).
The obvious risk with QB/RB or RB/QB is rolling without a top-five WR. But the numbers back the return. You don’t need to spend on a game-breaker, you need to find value with SERVICEABLE go-to-guys. Remember, the big names face double- and triple-teams, and guys like Miles Austin and Sidney Rice will keep emerging each year (Early Doucet and Jeremy Maclin in 2010 . . . depending on whether or not Warner comes back).
Of course, you probably assumed as much. But I wanted to throw some bad math at you anyway.
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Building on our 
I started this blog with a handful of posts related to the upcoming (current) fantasy season. I spent more time and effort in mock drafts than ever before, hoping to unearth a hidden gem or two that escaped those lucky enough to get paid for guessing each week.
Fantasy Rewind: NFL Week 9 Winners and Losers
This Man Will Give You 15 Each Week.
A huge grab bag of NFL Week 9 Winners and Losers this week.
Let’s just get down to business.
The Winners
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: A few low-yardage outings aside, The Burner has scored eight touchdowns in his last five games, punctuated by this week’s 18-166-2 performance. Turner is one of the few backs that does exactly what you’d expect in a given outing. His yardage may ebb once in a while, but there’s no question who’s getting the ball on the goal line.
Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: I never thought Warner’s wife was attractive, although she’s doing much better with the longer hair. There’s something about a female Marine Corps vet that scares my babymaker. I was sort of into Demi Moore in G.I. Jane. Anyway, Warner decimated the Bears for 265 and 5. Bet your fantasy team on him, just not your money.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: Even as I lamented another Bears loss, I quietly rejoiced over Fitzgerald’s fantasy stats (9-123-2). He’s one of the few receivers you see in person (Calvin Johnson being another) and realize he’s on another level than everyone else on the field. With the Seahawks, Rams (twice), Titans and Lions still on the schedule, 1,400 yards and 15 scores isn’t out of the question.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: Williams put up 21-149-2 against a competent Saints defense on Sunday. Things get a little tougher for him in the second half but he remains a must-start in all formats. By the way, have you ever seen a team more star-crossed team than the Panthers (okay, maybe the Titans)? Every time they start to pull things together, they come up a little short.
Greg Olsen, TE, Bears: Just what we all need, another feast or famine tight end. If I had my druthers, all fantasy football leagues would start two WRs and a single flex (WR/TE/RB). Starting a tight end is like going to a wedding where you only know your date. You’re either going to get shit-housed or sit quietly in the corner. There’s no in between.
Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: Rice gets the nod this week not because he blew you away (12-48-1) but because the guy’s lowest scoring outing this year is still close to double-digits. It’s like the academy giving Lord of the Rings: Return of the King best picture based on all three films. Sometimes, consistency counts. (Along those lines, I’ve watched various installments of The Matrix during my recent ‘time off.’ I think the second film gets a bad wrap. Like LotR: The Two Towers, it was basically stitching together the story. Had they only made two films, the first, and then a longer compilation of the second two — removing almost all of the Zion scenes — the series would be seen in a different light.).
Steelers DST: Anyone in an ESPN fantasy league knows two things. One, the site is unusually hard to navigate. Two, their ‘expert’ projections are either absurdly low or high. Anyone that didn’t think the Steelers defense would have a field day against Denver doesn’t watch the games. The ESPN experts projected 4, the defense delivered 17.
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: In the long lineage of QB’s carrying bad teams, the comparison was made this week between Cutler and Archie Manning of the Saints. Reaching perhaps, but Cutler is putting up huge numbers (369-3-1 this week) for a Bears offense that really doesn’t have anything. His best receiver is a converted return guy still learning the position (although Devin Hester has shown great improvement this year).
Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals: No other back in the league is approaching 25 carries per game. There’s little doubt he’s going to break down before he turns 28 but as long as he continues to put up numbers like Sunday (34-117-1), Benson is a must-start in any format or matchup.
The Losers
Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: I don’t know what to say about Westbrook. Obviously, this year’s performance isn’t his fault. Limited carries and a nasty concussion have limited the diminutive dynamo (47-197-1). But anyone that drafted him (myself included) has waited patiently for a triumphant return that may not come. Even if you handcuffed LeSean McCoy, this isn’t the situation you envisioned at the start of the season.
Willie Parker, RB, Steelers: Another victim of the changing guard in NFL backfields, Parker didn’t register a single carry in Pittsburgh’s win over Denver. Although healthy, FWP is now an afterthought in the Steelers offense, and only viable if second-year back Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt.
Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: If you’ve watched a few Ravens games this year, you know the score on Flacco. Every thing he does is predicated on Ray Rice and his ability to turn screen passes into long gains. Sure, Flacco can throw the ball down field, and Derrick Mason is still a deep threat, but the Flacco owners will live and die on the short pass. This week, we died.
Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: Another major concussion in the NFL this week. Against the backdrop of the congressional hearings, Westbrook’s injury and the Redskins being a playoff afterthought, don’t expect the team to rush Portis back on the field.
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: After a few upticks (against the Raiders and Denver), L.T. is following FWP into fantasy irrelevance. It’s unfortunate to see such a talent fade so quickly. It wasn’t long ago that L.T. was the class of the league. How quickly that’s forgotten in the face of 12-22-0 performances.
Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons: The honeymoon is over for Ryan, who has seen his fantasy totals drop for five consecutive weeks (including 135-1 last week).
Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: It sucks to be a Johnson owner. The guy is so talented that he’s a threat to score even on this Lions squad. Unfortunately, Matt Stafford is more akin to throwing to the other team (5 Ints) than Johnson (2-27-0).
Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals. I feel bad for Boldin. After a lot of lip-service by the team in the off-season, Boldin suited up again this year. Yet, the team continues to devalue his contribution to the offense, whether he’s on the field or not. A once a nasty YAC guy is now just hoping for 2-3 catches a game. Why Ken Wisenhut didn’t trade him in a rich off-season market for receivers is beyond me. Could you imagine Boldin and Cutler together in Chicago? /Drool.
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Posted in Fantasy Football, NFL, News and Commentary
Tagged Anquan Boldin, Brian Westbrook, Calvin Johnson, Cedric Benson, Clinton Portis, DeAngelo Williams, Fantasy Football, Greg Olsen, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Kurt Warner, Ladainian Tomlinson, Larry Fitzgerald, Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, NFL, Ray Rice, Steelers, Week 9 Winners and Losers, Willie Parker