Category Archives: NFL

NFL 2010 Fantasy Predictions

Posted on January 21, 2010 by Rewind After Use| Leave a comment

Drafting for 2010

After a few months off (see: extended holiday boozing), I’m back and ready to own up to my successes and failures as a fantasy prognosticator.  It was a long season for the Chicago Sharts, having placed far too many eggs in the baskets of Jay Cutler, Steve Slaton and Brian Westbrook.

Cutler was a decided risk.  My strategy (in a 10-team league) was to hold off taking a QB until the second half of the draft.  This was based largely on my success a year earlier with Kurt Warner in the late rounds.  Wrong.  Grade:  F

Slaton and Westbrook ran into different but equally debilitating issues.  Slaton fumbled more than a Mariah Carey acceptance speech, and Westbrook joined the Merrill Hoge ranks of disturbing and repeated concussions.  Neither was effective or valuable the entire year, but I had to keep them on the roster in hopes of a recovery.  Thomas Jones was my only bright spot.  Grade:  C-.

Had the league played with only WRs and TEs, I would’ve had the title.  Larry Fitzgerald was dominant (even if not to the level we expected), and Miles Austin had a breakout year.  Add another consistent season from Tony Gonzalez and this became a solid receiving crew.  Grade:  B+.

ESPN Standard Scoring  Analysis

Anyone that drafted 6-10 had a major decision this year.  Every sure-fire RB was off the board and the stable of top-tier receivers was thin (or so we thought).  I picked seventh and the question was clear:  Do I start the WR run or reach into a huge lot of second-tier running backs?  I went Fitzgerald and subsequently endured a 3-10 season.

Some of that can be blamed on my RB challenges, and relying on Cutler/Flacco the entire season (hey, they looked decent at times).  But it cemented a universal truth that, before this year’s draft, was being challenged in some corners.  Regardless of draft position, your team will live and die with two positions:  QB and RB.  The only dynamic that changed is fantasy priority between the two.

The Pitfalls of a WR/WR Strategy

Before I get into that, let’s talk about the WR/WR strategy.  It’s certainly daring, and given the RB depth in 2009 (six scored 200+ pts. on the season; 18 scored 150+), I found quite a few options in the next three rounds.  On the other hand, the WR pool wasn’t nearly as deep (three scored 200+ this year; 13 scored 150+).

The logical fallacy (and the one I believed) was that the overall WR pool was not only much smaller but that the top tier was half the size of their backfield counterparts.  The numbers seemed to favor WR/WR when picking after the top RB tier was gone.  So get while the gettin’s good, right?  Unfortunately, distribution was everything in 2009 (and being too lazy to check, I’d guess every year in the past decade).

Let’s take Fitzy for example.  He finished fifth in ESPN standard scoring (180 pts.) for WRs, yet he had just as many single-digit games (8) as he did double-digit.  Of the latter, only two were above 20 points (24, 20).

Another example is Miles Austin, who finished third in WR scoring (194).  Austin recorded nine games in double digits.  Of those, only three were above 20 points (37, 29, 20).  You could plug Andre Johnson or Randy Moss (#1 and #2, respectively) into Austin’s example.  Both logged nine games in double-digits, with Moss scoring above 20 four times and Johnson three.

Overall, the top five WRs totaled 43 games in double-digits with 16 outings above 20 points.  In comparison, the top five RBs totaled 59 games in double-digits with 22 outings above 20 points.  But that’s not the point — we already knew the top RBs would outscore and be more consistent than the top WRs.

This is a little subjective but let’s compare the top tier WRs with a few second- and third-tier running backs.

  • Joseph Addai (#9 RB):  12 in double-digits, two 20+
  • Jamaal Charles (#12 RB):  Seven in double-digits,  three 20+
  • Jonathon Stewart (#11 RB):  Seven in double-digits, four 20+
  • Ronnie Brown (#32 RB):  Six in double-digits, three 20+

If your league is anything like mine (moderate football IQ, prepared for the draft), all of those RBs could’ve been had after the first four  rounds.  And there’s a host of similar examples that could’ve been had much later:  Cedric Benson, Fred Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, etc.

The real-life reasons for the disparity are fairly obvious.  It’s much easier for a defensive coordinator to take a receiver out of the game than to lock down a back that plays in a balanced offense.  It’s also a volume issue.  A back has 15-25 touches to put up points, where a typical receiver will have 6-10 a game.

The takeaway, at least for an owner considering a WR/WR strategy, is don’t do it.  If you pick in the latter half of the first round, go RB/RB or QB/RB.  Outside of Andre Johnson, who was as consistent as a top-tier RB this year, the upside is extremely limited.  Best case scenario, they keep pace with the second-tier backs you could’ve taken.  Worst case scenario, they cripple your team with feast or famine games.

Making A Case for QB/RB in 2010

No single player is more important to your success next year than quarterback (unless you have the opportunity to take Chris Johnson).  Consistent QB play, week-to-week, is more critical to long-term success than two stud backs.

In contrast to a top-flight RB that has trouble putting up 20+ each week, your QB should average that amount.  A quick look at QB point-per-game averages in 2009 (admittedly using my league’s scoring system which varies a bit from ESPN standard):

  • Aaron Rodgers (#1):  24
  • Drew Brees (#2):  21
  • Brett Favre (#3):  21
  • Peyton Manning (#4): 21
  • Matt Schaub (#5):  20
  • Tony Romo (#6):  20
  • Tom Brady (#7):  20
  • Philip Rivers (#8):  19
  • Big Ben (#9):  19
  • Donovan McNabb (#10):  16

The difference doesn’t seem like much initially, but over the course of a full NFL season, it’s a delta of nearly a hundred points between Rodgers (#1) and McNabb (#10).  This isn’t reason enough to take a QB over a RB with the first three or four picks but it makes a very strong case to use a 5-10 pick on a QB rather than a top flight WR or second tier RB.

Another subjective point to consider.  It took an historic year from Chris Johnson to narrowly edge Aaron Rodgers in total points (329-327).  Rodgers was good but not NFL record books good.

Let’s set up a reasonable scenario in next year’s draft.  Chris Johnson, AP, MJD and Ray Rice are taken with the first four picks.  You’re on the clock at five.

Option #1:  You can take Deangelo Williams, Michael Turner, Stephen Jackson, Mendenhall, Frank Gore and Addai among others (with only 20-30 total points separating the lot).

Option #2:  You can take the #1 WR Andre Johnson (only 25 total points above the #5 WR)

Option #3:  You can take the #1 QB Aaron Rodgers (47 total points above the #2 QB, and 58 above the #5 QB)

Those figures quickly elevate Rodgers into a Top 5 candidate, and validate a QB/RB approach.  The drop-off was a little greater this year after Rodgers, but I’d still put Manning and Brees in QB/RB or RB/QB territory (who knows with Favre, you definitely don’t burn a Top 20 pick on him).

The obvious risk with QB/RB or RB/QB is rolling without a top-five WR.  But the numbers back the return.  You don’t need to spend on a game-breaker, you need to find value with SERVICEABLE go-to-guys.  Remember, the big names face double- and triple-teams, and guys like Miles Austin and Sidney Rice will keep emerging each year (Early Doucet and Jeremy Maclin in 2010 . . . depending on whether or not Warner comes back).

Of course, you probably assumed as much.  But I wanted to throw some bad math at you anyway.

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NFL 2009 Midseason Awards

Posted on November 10, 2009 by Rewind After Use| Leave a comment
Norm

Norm Approves of The These Awards.

A few years ago, my friends and I held an annual sojourn to Vegas.  It was a magical time before the soul-crushing rigors of life, a five-year stretch in our mid-20′s, somewhere between college graduation and the first wedding engagements (and/or children for those early starters).  We all had a little money, a little success, and a robust penchant for debauchery.

Our first trip was an epic 72-hour affair that started shortly after our departing flight.  Anyone that’s gone to Vegas on such a venture knows the cheers that erupt just before landing on the strip.  There’s a certain energy to cracking your first drink at 8am, knowing your colleagues are still slaving away at the office.

Those first few trips included at least a few of the following moments: one member always AWOL, incredible up-then-down blackjack moments, realizing that craps is the best game ever invented, almost closing the deal with a complete skank, paying $50 to get into a club and leaving 30 minutes later (after not closing on said skank), someone pissing the bed and another missing their flight home.  There’s a reason Simmons talks about Vegas at least 4-5 times a year in his columns.  Ahh Vegas.

Inevitably, that excitement wanes through the years.

Vegas becomes less about life-long friends cutting loose and more about couples enjoying a few days off.  Late nights getting housed at the Golden Nugget tables (after we lose our ass on the main strip) are replaced by ‘we’re going to see a show, we’ll meet you guys later.’  After doing Vegas balls-to-the-wall for five years, it’s akin to the Rock Biter in The Neverending Story clinging to life as the world around him disintegrates.

Peyton Manning was on that last flight to Vegas this year, on the heals of Tony Dungie’s departure and facing the least experienced receiving corps of his career.   When the flight landed, not even Manning had the energy to raise a toast to the upcoming season.  Instead of racing to the closest blackjack table, he slowly eyeballed the Keno board in the hopes of riding out the weekend.

And then a funny thing happened on the way to oblivion.  Nine weeks and 9 wins later, Manning is proving that not all things change.

Most Valuable Player:  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts. Although impressive (221-2545-16), the stats aren’t enough.  Manning runs this franchise.  The closest thing is Mike Brown coaching the Cavaliers, and that’s not even in the same realm.  Tom Moore is a great offensive mind but let’s be clear — Manning calls the plays.  He’s the closest thing to a player-coach the NFL has ever seen, and he’s doing it with [insert name] running routes.  What starts with Reggie Wayne, an all-pro receiver, ends with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon.

Runner Up:  Drew Brees, QB, Saints.

Comeback Player of the Year:  Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals.  I’ve already touted Benson’s ability to stay healthy and productive with 25+ carries a game this year.  The biggest surprise is his attitude and the way the offense rallied around him.  Any Bears fan can tell you what I saw in two years in Chicago — a selfish player that complained about carries, couldn’t run through arm tackles or keep himself out of trouble.  He’s a throwback to the days of a workhorse back and his team found balance in his rejuvenation.

Runner Up:  Kyle Orton, QB, Broncos.

Offensive Player of the Year:  Drew Brees, QB, Saints.  It’s always a little weird when the MVP and best offensive player are different.  The difference here is that New Orleans brings a lot more to the table offensively, but Brees (181-2336-17) remains the heart of the unit.  It’s a tough case to make, but Brees doesn’t unload every time he can, just when he needs to.  With a strong stable of backs and receivers, even Manning and the Colts don’t want to push Brees into shoot-out mode.

Runner Up:  Peyton Manning, QB, Colts.

Defensive Player of the Year:  Troy Polamalu, DB, Steelers.  There’s no bigger game-changer in the league, especially for a 3-4 defense built on risk-taking and recovery.  Not Ed Reed.  Not Darren Sharper.  Not Jared Allen.  Not even the resurgent James Harrison.  When Polamalu is in the lineup, the Steelers defense is a different animal.  And that beast generally dismembers opposing offenses.  He plays the run, covers like a shut-down corner and — like an 8 facing the dealers 10 — sticks it out to the bitter end.

Runner Up:  Darren Sharper, DB, Saints.

Offensive Rookie of the Year:  Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings. At some point during training camp, Brad Childress woke up screaming in the middle of the night.  His wife, terrified that this may be the one, calls the paramedics.  Staring blankly at his cell phone, which reads ‘One Message Waiting’, Childress ejaculates at the mere thought of having Brett Favre build chemistry with versatile and speedy first-round pick.  Paramedics arrive to Childress mumbling, As long as we win, this beard shall grow . . .

Runner Up:  Michael Oher, OL, Ravens. (And not just because of the book.  Yes, it was a book first.)

Defensive Rookie of the Year:  Brian Cushing, LB, Texans. I hate USC linebackers.  I think they’re over-rated, under-sized and generally fit into schemes rather than stewarding defenses.  But Cushing is second in the league in tackles (78)  with two picks for a maturing Texans defense.

Runner Up:  Brian Orakpo, DE, Redskins.

Coach of the Year:  Sean Payton, Saints. After establishing offensive domain over the league last year, Payton re-tooled his defense into an opportunistic, and if need be, resilient unit.  More so, he has the humility to hand the reigns over to Brees, helping mold the Saints into one of the league’s two unbeaten teams at the halfway point.

Runner Up:  Mike Tomlin, Steelers.

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Fantasy Rewind: NFL Week 9 Winners and Losers

Posted on November 10, 2009 by Rewind After Use| Leave a comment
Turner

This Man Will Give You 15 Each Week.

A huge grab bag of NFL Week 9 Winners and Losers this week.

Let’s just get down to business.

The Winners

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons:  A few low-yardage outings aside, The Burner has scored eight touchdowns in his last five games, punctuated by this week’s 18-166-2 performance.  Turner is one of the few backs that does exactly what you’d expect in a given outing.  His yardage may ebb once in a while, but there’s no question who’s getting the ball on the goal line.

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals:  I never thought Warner’s wife was attractive, although she’s doing much better with the longer hair.  There’s something about a female Marine Corps vet that scares my babymaker.  I was sort of into Demi Moore in G.I. Jane.  Anyway, Warner decimated the Bears for 265 and 5.  Bet your fantasy team on him, just not your money.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals:  Even as I lamented another Bears loss, I quietly rejoiced over Fitzgerald’s fantasy stats (9-123-2).  He’s one of the few receivers you see in person (Calvin Johnson being another) and realize he’s on another level than everyone else on the field.  With the Seahawks, Rams (twice), Titans and Lions still on the schedule, 1,400 yards and  15 scores isn’t out of the question.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers:  Williams put up 21-149-2 against a competent Saints defense on Sunday.  Things get a little tougher for him in the second half but he remains a must-start in all formats.  By the way, have you ever seen a team more star-crossed team than the Panthers (okay, maybe the Titans)?  Every time they start to pull things together, they come up a little short.

Greg Olsen, TE, Bears:  Just what we all need, another feast or famine tight end.  If I had my druthers, all fantasy football leagues would start two WRs and a single flex (WR/TE/RB).  Starting a tight end is like going to a wedding where you only know your date.  You’re either going to get shit-housed or sit quietly in the corner.  There’s no in between.

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens:  Rice gets the nod this week not because he blew you away (12-48-1) but because the guy’s lowest scoring outing this year is still close to double-digits.  It’s like the academy giving Lord of the Rings:  Return of the King best picture based on all three films.  Sometimes, consistency counts.  (Along those lines, I’ve watched various installments of The Matrix during my recent ‘time off.’  I think the second film gets a bad wrap.  Like LotR:  The Two Towers, it was basically stitching together the story.  Had they only made two films, the first, and then a longer compilation of the second two — removing almost all of the Zion scenes — the series would be seen in a different light.).

Steelers DST:  Anyone in an ESPN fantasy league knows two things.  One, the site is unusually hard to navigate.  Two, their ‘expert’ projections are either absurdly low or high.  Anyone that didn’t think the Steelers defense would have a field day against Denver doesn’t watch the games.  The ESPN experts projected 4, the defense delivered 17.

Jay Cutler, QB, Bears:  In the long lineage of QB’s carrying bad teams, the comparison was made this week between Cutler and Archie Manning of the Saints.  Reaching perhaps, but Cutler is putting up huge numbers (369-3-1 this week) for a Bears offense that really doesn’t have anything.  His best receiver is a converted return guy still learning the position (although Devin Hester has shown great improvement this year).

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals:  No other back in the league is approaching 25 carries per game.  There’s little doubt he’s going to break down before he turns 28 but as long as he continues to put up numbers like Sunday (34-117-1), Benson is a must-start in any format or matchup.

The Losers

Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles:   I don’t know what to say about Westbrook.  Obviously, this year’s performance isn’t his fault.  Limited carries and a nasty concussion have limited the diminutive dynamo (47-197-1).  But anyone that drafted him (myself included) has waited patiently for a triumphant return that may not come.  Even if you handcuffed LeSean McCoy, this isn’t the situation you envisioned at the start of the season.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers:  Another victim of the changing guard in NFL backfields, Parker didn’t register a single carry in Pittsburgh’s win over Denver.  Although healthy, FWP is now an afterthought in the Steelers offense, and only viable if second-year back Rashard Mendenhall gets hurt.

Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens:  If you’ve watched a few Ravens games this year, you know the score on Flacco.  Every thing he does is predicated on Ray Rice and his ability to turn screen passes into long gains.  Sure, Flacco can throw the ball down field, and Derrick Mason is still a deep threat, but the Flacco owners will live and die on the short pass.  This week, we died.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins:  Another major concussion in the NFL this week.  Against the backdrop of the congressional hearings, Westbrook’s injury and the Redskins being a playoff afterthought, don’t expect the team to rush Portis back on the field.

LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers:  After a few upticks (against the Raiders and Denver), L.T. is following FWP into fantasy irrelevance.  It’s unfortunate to see such a talent fade so quickly.  It wasn’t long ago that L.T. was the class of the league.  How quickly that’s forgotten in the face of 12-22-0 performances.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons:  The honeymoon is over for Ryan, who has seen his fantasy totals drop for five consecutive weeks (including 135-1 last week).

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions:  It sucks to be a Johnson owner.  The guy is so talented that he’s a threat to score even on this Lions squad.  Unfortunately, Matt Stafford is more akin to throwing to the other team (5 Ints) than Johnson (2-27-0).

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals.  I feel bad for Boldin.  After a lot of lip-service by the team in the off-season, Boldin suited up again this year.  Yet, the team continues to devalue his contribution to the offense, whether he’s on the field or not.  A once a nasty YAC guy is now just hoping for 2-3 catches a game.  Why Ken Wisenhut didn’t trade him in a rich off-season market for receivers is beyond me.  Could you imagine Boldin and Cutler together in Chicago?  /Drool.

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The Chicago Bears Will Rise Again (Just Not Anytime Soon)

Posted on November 10, 2009 by Rewind After Use| Leave a comment
salaam

Kordell Stewart Approves This Message.

It was not a good weekend for your football team if I happened to be in attendance.

I traveled to my old stomping grounds on Saturday to watch my high school football team lose a second-round playoff game (to a team they beat during the regular season).  The following day, I witnessed Kurt Warner’s dissection of the Bears secondary at Soldiers Field.

Beer eases the pain.

If there was one thing I noticed about watching high school football its that it seems about 100x faster when you’re actually playing it.  Although there were some talented athletes on the field, I couldn’t help but think, This all just looks a lot slower than I remember.  Of course in my current shape, I probably couldn’t run down a single player on either team.

Speed wasn’t the most glaring issue on Sunday as I watched Kurt Warner dissect the Bears defense, although Larry Fitzgerald routinely made their DBs look like they were carrying a plow behind them.  Watching from the north end zone, we get a pretty clear view of coverage schemes that you don’t see on a TV broadcast.

Put simply, the Bears defense looked lost.  It was the second time this year that a top-tier QB methodically picked them apart with screens, short routes, crossing routes and deep patterns.  The more pressure the Bears brought (which wasn’t nearly enough), the easier it was for Warner and co. to adjust to find the open receiver.  Carson Palmer did the same thing a few weeks ago.  Heck, Matt Stafford and Seneca Wallace both put up 250+ yards against this unit.

I was emailing with my friend BK about the state of affairs in Chicago.  There’s really no short-term answer for this team.  Lovie Smith will not be fired or bought out of his current contract, which extends through 2011.  First, Smith took them to the Super Bowl three years ago.  Second, the McCaskey’s just don’t do that, not even with absolute disasters (see:  Dave Wannstedt and Dick Jauron).  Not to mention the $11M they’d eat.

So where do you start rebuilding?  The offensive line is a mess.  The defensive line is aging and inconsistent.  Even with Urlacher healthy, the linebackers don’t have much tread left (Briggs can’t do it alone).  And what about the secondary?  Outside of Peanut Tillman, who’s a shade slow these days and needs others to make up for his gambles, there’s not a legit performer in the back-end (they gave up their last game-changing DB, Mike Brown, after years of injuries).  Lest we forget the scheme itself — it’s painfully apparent to everyone but Lovie that the Bears don’t have the talent to support the Tampa-2.

Sure, the Bears locked up one of the league’s best young quarterbacks in Jay Cutler, who more than any other season is carrying an abysmal offense on his back.  And they found a diamond in the rough with Matt Forte last year, who has looked more like Curtis Enis than Walter Payton after a break-out rookie season.

But for both to succeed in the long-term, they need a supporting cast that’s just not there.  Speaking of which, Orlando Pace was arguably the worst free-agent signing of the year.  Unless they meant to sign the Zombie Pace, in which case he’s showing remarkably quick feet for a corpse.

It’s going to be a long second-half for the Bears:  Vikings twice, Eagles, Packers and Ravens.  That’s a tough nut to crack for a team still in contention for a wild card spot.  But it’s going to be an even longer few years for Bears fans that only weeks ago saw 2009 as a turning point for the franchise.

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Steve Slaton: A Graphic Analysis

Posted on November 2, 2009 by Rewind After Use| Leave a comment
FumblesTDs2

Tiki Barber approves this message.

FumblesTDsFantasy owners do not approve of this message.

 

SlatonMoats

You are NOT my boy, Blue.

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Fantasy Rewind: NFL Week 7 Winners and Losers

Posted on October 26, 2009 by Rewind After Use| Leave a comment
CedBen

Longhorn Running Backs Dominated the Weekend

After dropping five straight, my fantasy team rebounded this week with standout performances by Thomas Jones, Miles Austin and the Steelers DST.  Thankfully, the Chicago Sharts still have an outside chance to make the league playoffs.

It was a good weekend across the board for most established performers, and I imagine most of your league’s scores are hovering around the century mark (especially in PPR leagues).  In this week’s rewind, I eat a little crow on two players (Cedric Benson and Carson Palmer) that I doubted earlier this year.

The Winners

Thomas Jones, RB, Jets:  The Rodney Dangerfield of football (both on the field and in fantasy) just keeps on chugging.  With 26 carries for 121 yards and score on Sunday, Jones has totaled 331  yards and two scores in his last two outings.  This was his fourth dominant fantasy performance of the year (19, 30, 16, 23).  Although he’s faced weak running defenses, Jones is in must-start territory from week to week.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals:  Benson is quickly becoming a throwback to the days of a single lead back.  Ced’s 37 carries against Chicago is the league’s highest single-game total this year, and he’s leading the league in both total rushing yards (720) and attempts per game (23).  His lowest fantasy output this year is 8 pts. (ESPN standard scoring), making the Orange Jesus only slightly less consistent than his Purple counterpart.

Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys:  Check out Austin’s two-game totals — 421 yards and 4 TDs.  He hasn’t cracked the top 10 in total fantasy points for a wideout, but little doubt remains about his ability or chemistry with Tony Romo.

Ricky Williams, RB, Miami:  Is there a better compliment to Ronnie Brown, or any starting back for that matter?  Williams averages only 12-13 touches per game but has accounted for nearly 540 yards and 6 scores.  This is Williams’ ninth year in the league, and the guy is well beyond the age when most running backs deteriorate (32).  But the former Heisman winner shows incredible burst through the hole and still has elite speed for a power back.

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans:  I think fantasy owners are finally past any hesitation starting Schaub week-to-week.  Although he didn’t put up staggering numbers on Sunday (264 yards, 2 TDs), he’s more consistent and has the tools and team to hang with Brady and Brees on occasion.  If Steve Slaton can continue to improve on the ground (he’s been terrific as a pass-catcher this year), expect big things from Schaub.

Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals:  The rumors of Palmer’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.  The second Bengal on this list put up Brady-like numbers on Sunday (233 yards, 5 TDs), albeit against a pitiful Chicago secondary.  You’re not going to see this on a weekly basis but with Benson keeping 7-8 defenders in the box, Palmer is more than capable of making good secondaries pay.

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers:  Move over Antonio Gates, Davis is now the best red-zone TE in the league.  And with the return of Alex Smith, you can only expect more of the same (this duo has demonstrated good chemistry in the past).  He’s not going to net huge yardage or reception totals, but almost 1-in-4 of his receptions goes for a TD.

Honorable Mention:  Green Bay offense; Steelers DST; Chad Ochocinco, Bengals

The Losers

Hines Ward, WR, Steelers:  The top-five fantasy receiver had a slow day on Sunday, netting one reception for three yards against a stout Minnesota defense (even without Antoine Winfield).  It was a quirky offensive day for both squads, with much of the scoring coming from special teams and turnovers.  Although Ward is losing some possession targets to Heath Miller, these games are going to happen now and again.  He faces a tough secondary in Denver after next week’s bye.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers:  It pains me to put Ward and Holmes on this list but at least the Steelers defense showed up this week.  Holmes is a matchup performer (think Lee Evans) and a deep threat but he hasn’t overtaken Ward as the team’s go-to guy, even when the Steelers are putting up good yardage numbers.  You’ll get a few gems but don’t expect any sort of consistency week-to-week.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears:  You can’t blame Forte for this week’s totals (49 total yards, 0 TDs).  The game was over before the end of the first quarter, and he quickly became a non-factor.  But the writing is on the wall — the Bears line can’t run block, and Forte isn’t showing the same burst or decisive cutback runs that made  him so effective last year.  Without the Detroit game, Forte has carried 80 times for 197 yards and zero scores this year.  And the rest of the schedule (Philadelphia, Baltimore and Minnesota twice) doesn’t bode well for a second-half recovery.

Terrell Owens, WR, Bills:  Like Forte, it’s time to stop banging your head against the keyboard and sit (or drop) T.O.  He is quite simply the worst starting #1 receiver in the league right now (well, outside of Roy Williams, who just lost his #1 status to Miles Austin).  If you stripped away the name, would you even consider starting a WR that has 18 catches for 242 yards and score?

Greg Olson, TE, Bears:  Our second Bear on the list was considered a breakout performer by many (including me) with the addition of Cutler.  Olson totaled four catches for 24 yards against the Bengals in a game that saw the Bears throwing on three and four downs.  Not a good sign.  In an offense that can’t run and a hit-or-miss quarterback, Olson’s value has dropped to bye week replacement status.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions:  If you’ve ever seen Johnson play in person, he’s truly a man among boys on the field.  He may be the most complete and physically dominant receiver in the league.  However, in addition to playing in the Lions offense, he’s dealing with a nagging injury that kept him off the field on Sunday.  Although he had a great performance against in Week 4, you can probably attribute that to the Bears secondary.  With Daunte Culpepper and Matthew Stafford rotating at quarterback (due to injuries), Megatron’s talents will continue to be wasted.

Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys:  Ironically, the departure of Julius Jones may have been the worst thing to happen to Barber.  Instead of an adequate but error-prone back-up, Barber is splitting carries with a true game breaker (Felix Jones) and a proven backup (Tashard Choice).  Never mind that the Barbarian is running for a career-best 4.8 yards per carry — Jones is averaging almost 9 yards per, and the Cowboys defense isn’t allowing them to close out games on the ground.

Honorable Mention:  Jay Cutler, Bears; Frank Gore, 49ers; Tony Gonzalez, Falcons; Antonio Gates, Chargers

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Media Reaction to Edwards Trade

Posted on October 8, 2009 by Rewind After Use| Leave a comment

If you’re confused about the number of Coen Brothers movie posts going up the last few days, you’re not alone.  Unless you’ve seen every Coens’ movie at least once, it makes absolutely no sense.  But we’re trying something new, so do with it what you will.

In the meantime, let’s hurry back to more familiar territory.

Media Reactions to Braylon Edwards Trade

  • Bud Shaw, Cleveland Plain Dealer:  Now, a few days after Mangini installed Derek Anderson’s big arm behind center and praised the blocking and effort of Edwards against the Bengals, the Browns trade away the biggest weapon in the vertical passing game.
  • Gary Myers, New York Daily News: Edwards probably needed a fleet of Woody Johnson’s private planes on his trip from Cleveland to New Jersey to store all his baggage. Edwards is 6-3 and can do for Sanchez what Plaxico Burress did for Eli Manning . . . This is an all-or-nothing trade. Edwards will either get his game together or be a huge headache. A risk worth taking.
  • Tim Graham, ESPN.com: The New York Jets’ prized acquisition has bobbled passes like nobody else over the past couple of years. Edwards had a breakout season in 2007, catching 80 balls for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns. But he also has been plagued with cement hands that drove Cleveland Browns fans bonkers.
  • Angel Navedo, BleacherReport.com: There are no sure things in gambling, but coach Rex Ryan’s familiarity with Edwards should put fans at ease.  If Ryan believed in him after preparing for him twice a year in Baltimore, then it’s safe to assume that the decision to make the trade was carefully examined.
  • Nate Davis, USAToday.com: Cleveland rids itself of a player who didn’t seem enthralled with new coach Eric Mangini and whose contract was up after the season. The Browns add a serviceable player in Stuckey, more ammunition to turn over their largely talent-starved roster all while creating more playing time for rookie WRs . . .

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NFL Week 5: Fantasy Booms & Busts

Posted on October 7, 2009 by Rewind After Use| Leave a comment
Jessica Alba's Team is Undefeated

Jessica Alba's Team is Undefeated

If you’re 4-0 or 3-1 in your fantasy league, stop reading right now.  You’re a gifted prognosticator or lucky, probably both.  Either way, I hate you.  This week’s fantasy projections are for those degenerates riding a 1-3 or 0-4 start.  I am one of those degenerates.

Most head-to-head leagues start their playoff schedule in Week 13 or 14.  That means mid-season is right around the corner and the odds of turning things around are quickly decreasing, especially as the NFL heads into the bulk of its bye weeks.  Yes, it’s time to panic.

Before we get into your Week 5 saviors, let’s look at a few breakout performances last week that probably helped put you in the toilet (scoring based on ESPN non-PPR leagues):

  • 49ers DST: 38
  • Saints DST: 26
  • Brett Favre, Vikings: 28
  • Steve Smith, Giants: 26
  • Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers: 31
  • David Garrard and Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars: 52 total points (31, 21)

For the most part, the usual crop of fantasy studs showed up last week.  But there were a few notable absences:

  • Steelers DST:  2
  • Titans DST:  -1
  • Drew Brees, Saints: 7
  • Tony Romo, Cowboys: 4
  • AP, Vikings:  8
  • LT, Chargers: 1
  • Jason Witten, Cowboys: 3
  • Marques Colston, Saints: 3

When you’re playing the wire this week, desperately looking for the slightest glimmer of hope, don’t focus on the player.  Most name brand and newly-established players are off the board, and will require commiserate value in trade scenarios (which you don’t have if you’re still reading).

So the story for Week 5 (and from here on out) is matchups.  Here’s  a few to investigate.

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Cleveland @ Buffalo: It’s been a rough start to the T.O. Era in Buffalo.  Expect that to change this week against a Browns team in complete disarray.  This is a great week to play Trent Edwards, especially with Marshawn Lynch active to help keep the defense honest.

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Minnesota @ St. Louis: Although he’s probably handcuffed to AP in your league, you can expect Chester Taylor to see a good amount of action as the Vikings try to keep All Day healthy.

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Pittsburgh @ Detroit: Rashard Mendenhall was probably your league’s first player off waivers this week after a breakout performance against the Chargers (of course, I dropped him after Week 3).  If you can’t lock him up, think about Mewelde Moore.  The Steelers will likely rest FWP another week, and limit Mendenhall’s touches.

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Oakland @ New York Giants: The word is out on Ahmad Bradshaw, and he’s probably not available in your league.  A decent shot for dirt time is Gartrell Johnson, the Giants’ third-string back.  If this one goes blowout, which it very well could against the Raiders 26th-ranked run defense, expect Coach Tom Coughlin to rest Thunder and Lightning v2.0 in favor of Gartrell.

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Houston @ Arizona: I like two backup RBs in this matchup.  Ryan Moats is the biggest beneficiary of Steve Slaton’s continued fumble-itis, and although the Cardinals have improved against the run, Moats could be a factor if Slaton puts it on the ground again.  Beanie Wells is a longer-shot, especially if Hightower continues get goal-line carries, but the Cardinal’s might look to the OSU star to spark its 31st-ranked rushing offense.

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Atlanta @ San Francisco: The 49ers have the highest-scoring DST but they’re owned in only 30% of ESPN leagues.  Although they face a tougher matchup this week against Matt Ryan and league’s 23rd-ranked offense, expect them to stay opportunistic.  Vernon Davis is owned in only 40% of ESPN leagues but is the third-highest scoring TE behind Gates and Clark.  Plus, the Falcons have given up multiple touchdowns to tight ends this year.

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Dallas @ Kansas City: Tashard Choice is owned in less than half of ESPN leagues and could see significant team even with Barber back in action.  Akin to the 49ers DST matchup last week, I like the Dallas DST as a solid waiver play against the Chiefs.

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Michael Crabtree Signs with Niners, Avoids Mike Williams’ Fate

Posted on October 7, 2009 by Rewind After Use| Leave a comment

Michael Crabtree finally succumbed to Head Coach Mike Singletary’s impenetrable gaze and Jedi mind tricks.  From ESPN:

The deal, first reported by ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter, was confirmed by 49ers spokesman Bob Lange in a text message to The Associated Press early Wednesday.

Crabtree will get a six-year deal that he can void to five years if he meets undefined performance clauses, a league source told ESPN’s Michael Smith.

The 22-year-old Crabtree is expected to report to the team’s training facility Wednesday.

Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker met into the early-morning hours Wednesday with 49ers owner Jed York, general manager Scot McCloughan and Paraag Marathe, vice president of football operations. The two sides had gone almost three weeks without talking.

Although the  circumstances are different, we’ve seen the impact a full year away from the game can have on wide receiving prospects.  Mike Williams, the former USC standout, slugged through four incredibly disappointing seasons before he was cut by the Titans.

Crabtree was heading for a similar fate.  Like Williams, he would’ve made his money in the 2010 draft, but the deterioration of his game over the next year would’ve been an enormous hurdle.

One of my friends was a premier player in the AFL for a number of years.  With the league back on its feet, I asked him last night if he was interested in playing again for two more years.  His response:  It would take me two years just to get back into game shape.  In Crabtree’s case, he was looking at not playing a single NFL down for nearly 18 months, and as we’re seeing with Vick’s return, it’s a long road back to game shape.

Like Vernon Davis, I think Crabtree will benefit immensely from Singletary, the rare disciplinarian that also connects with his players as human beings.  If he can get Crabtree going by mid-season, and if Gore can stay healthy, this Niners team may finally turn the corner.

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Lebron James Kicks Braylon Edwards Out of Ohio

Posted on October 7, 2009 by Rewind After Use| Leave a comment
The King Has Forsaken Edwards

The King Has Forsaken Edwards

More news today on the wide receiver front.  According to the only ESPN insider that’s actually an insider, Adam Schefter:

In the deal, first reported by ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter, the Jets agreed to send key special teams player Jason Trusnik, wide receiver Chansi Stuckey and a pair of draft picks to Cleveland.

Apparently Rex Ryan was one of the six people that read my post on the worst NFL trade this decade and decided to ante up.  We’ll get to that in a second.

This may be the first time in history that a major athlete in a DIFFERENT SPORT ran another major athlete out of town.  As if things weren’t bad enough for Edwards on the field (10 catches, 139 yards), he punches a King James compatriot during a night club incident last Sunday and earns a one-way ticket out of The Forest City.  It was the last straw for a Browns franchise in a state of perpetual rebuilding.

More importantly, we may have a late entry in the Worst NFL Trade of the Decade sweepstakes.  We won’t have a clear picture until we get the final numbers on those draft picks, and have a chance to watch Edwards through next season.  Right now it’s a dark horse behind Williams to the ‘boys.

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